OUTPACEsys
Singular Views for Profitable Investing

 
8-12 December 2008


Auto Makers Bailout Unemployment Oil Price Moves


Contents

Portfolio & Trades
Trends in Equities
Alternate Markets - Bonds - Commodities
Country-specific ETFs
Industry Sectors
Bottom Line

***

Last week we had another sequence of strong moves in the market, driven by the conflicting news on various big topics such as the $15 billion Bailout of the Auto industry, the 26-year high unemployment report and Oil prices climbing up again.

WEEK IN A NUTSHELL:
  • In spite of the high volatility, almost no change for the week for the Dow Jones and the S&P500, while the Nasdaq closed a touch above 2% up.
  • Energy and Materials Sectors were slightly up, Financials down again
  • 30 Year Gov Bonds took a turn down
  • Crude Oil climbed, causing much commotion in the markets
  • Gold continued its strong climb but may be hitting resistance
  • Once again, our Long Term Portfolio is still in cash as we wait for the day the market gets out of this hellish fall (and that, unfortunately, may still be a long wait)
  • So we are currently focusing on short term trades

PORTFOLIO AND TRADES

Let us look at the short term trades we had last week, then we'll address all the other points in more detail.

TRADES - We took advantage of the fallback the market had in the second half of the week with these two trades, on Wednesday and Thursday:

Qs trades
Fig. 1a - Q's Trade Alerts, 5 min view

We utilized a November Put option on the Q's, as shown in this chart

QAVXF trades
Fig 1b - QAVXF trades


The first trade was actually very short, less than half an hour. We closed it (behaving very cautiously given the high volatility) when our real time indicator turned against the trade but we still gained 11% on that trade. The second trade was a bit longer and delivered a 29% profit in about one day.

So the standard $2,000 amount we utilize in these reports grew to $2,744 (for each trade we trade however many option contracts the $2k can buy). That gain equals 37% of the initial capital. Great result, once again!

Qs trades


Note 1 - The table shows what you could do with a $2,000 amount utilized each trade. We are not compounding or re-investing, we buy the number of contracts allowed by the opening option price.

Control Risk and Multiply Profits with our

OUTPACEsys Trade Alert Service
Click here NOW for your 100% RISK FREE Introductory Subscription


LOOK AHEAD - Given the high volatility of the markets, next week we'll focus again on short term trades. We'll continue keeping on hold our long term positions.

***

Click here for the video of this report



Click here to continue to Market Trends or enjoy the following video version:






8-12 December 2008

MARKET TRENDS - EQUITIES

We have shown earlier the weekly comparison chart of the equity indexes, this is the YTD comparison chart, with the three indexes down anywhere between 35 and 40% for the year.















The corresponding weekly price charts are reported here, showing all three indexes in a mild countertrend move, but still in negative territory long term.
 
























































In the Sectors arena, Energy and Materials were the winners for the week, while Financials lost another 5%.


International Stock also rallied this week across the board,
















Financials are now down 60% YTD

























Foreign stocks did better last week, with Germany, Hong Kong, Taiwan and Japan up 8-10%.























Only Japan is a bit above the S&P500 YTD. All others are down an extra 10% compared to US stocks.

























CRUDE OIL  rose a bit last week, but we are still bearish long term.




















GOLD
had a spike up and we'll have to see if it will be capable to march through some strong resistance now.





See below for comments on other market components.
















The weekly chart shows the fast move of Crude Oil up 12% this week, although it is down about 50% YTD.





















dj nd sp ytd
Fig.1c - Equity Indexes YTD performance comparison


INDU wkly
Fig.1 - Dow Jones Industrials, weekly

ND wkly
Fig.2 - S&P500 weekly


S&P500 wkly
Fig.3 - NASDAQ 100 weekly




sectors 1wk
Fig.4 - Sectors - 1 week performance comparison


sectrors YTD

Fig.5 - Sectors - YTD performance comparison


countries 1wk
Fig.6 - International Stocks - 1 week performance comparison



countries YTD
Fig.7 - International Stocks - YTD performance comparison




OIH wkly

Fig.8 - OIH/Crude Oil - weekly chart


Gold wkly
Fig.9 - Gold - weekly chart



mkts 1wk
Fig.10 - Major markets- weekly comparison chart



mkts YTD
Fig 11 - Major markets - YTD performance comparison


Country-specific ETFs

On the right is a chart showing the relative Year-to-Date performance of five of the country-specific ETF's that we chose to represent current round- the-world status.


countries YTD
Fig.12 - Country specific trend comparison: YTD





Industry Sectors  - Best & Worst


Sectors weekly performance comparison chart.

Legend:
Materials Select Sector, XLB
Energy Select Sector, XLE
Financial Select Sector, XLF
Rydex Russell Top 50, XLG
Industrial Select Sector, XLI
Technology Select Sector, XLK
Consumer Staples Select, XLP
Utilities Select Sector, XLU
Health Care Select Sector, XLV
Consumer Discretionary, XLY









Financials are still the worst performer YTD, down close to -60%.
sectors 1 wk
Fig.13 - Sector comparative performance: 1 week


sectros YTD
Fig.14 - Sector comparative performance: YTD




best trading

Bottom line
:
Our plan for 2008 is to continue following our proven approach and strategies to
  • achieve outstanding returns, and
  • manage a skillfully diversified portfolio
We will do that in the comfort of our safe money management techniques that ensure full control of occasional minor losses while allowing full realization of large profits.

As usual, the full details of our market analysis and real-time trade suggestions will be delivered to you via the
OUTPACEsys e-mail alert system.


***
Want to supercharge your trading skills, boost your profits
and limit risk?

Read about our proven approach to winning trades and
get high accuracy trade alerts at
OUTPACEsys

***

Disclaimer | Terms Of Use | Privacy Notice

© OUTPACEsys 2005-2008 All Rights Reserved


The subjects addressed in this message should not be considered as personalized investment advice. Our employees may answer your general customer service questions, but they are not licensed under securities laws to address your particular and personal investment situation. No discussion with our employees should be deemed as personalized investment advice. Any of the investment concepts discussed in our websites and publications should be acted upon only after consulting with your broker or investment advisor and only after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the companies involved.