OUTPACEsys
Singular Views for Profitable Investing

 
10-14 November 2008

Contents

Portfolio & Trades
Trends in Equities
Alternate Markets - Bonds - Commodities
Country-specific ETFs
Industry Sectors
Bottom Line

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PORTFOLIO AND TRADES

All the major equities indexes have been trading in a range in the last month, with large and violent swings. We are looking forward to the time when the markets decide which way to go next. That’s when we’ll be able to use the cash reserves we’ve been keeping on hold since the end of last year, when we had the long term indication of the impending downturn that’s still underway. When a trend is established we’ll then be able to open new long term trades.

ES monthly
Fig. 1a - Mini-S&P monthly view

For now, however, given the high volatility of the market, this past week we continued focusing on short term trades. Let us review here what we did with the Q’s, our favorite NASDAQ100-related ETF.

Q's trades
Fig 1b - Q's Signals


We had two signals in the Q’s, the first on Monday, calling for a bearish trade that we executed with  the November 32 Put, symbol QAVWF, and closed on Thursday. The second was a faster long trade we started on the November 30 Call, symbol QAVKB. The results are in the following table:


trades

Fig. 1c - This week's results

Once again, we show what a $2,000 investment would have generated (see Note 1 below). In the first trade, we could buy 14 contracts at $140 each. The trade gave a fantastic 164% profit turning the initial $2k to $5,220. In the second trade 13 contracts could be bought. The trade had a great return at 82% profit. We closed the week with a great profit of $4,754 from the initial $2,000. The power of options.


Note 1 - The table shows what you could do with a $2,000 amount utilized each trade. We are not compounding or re-investing, we buy the number of contracts allowed by the opening option price.


LOOK AHEAD - Given the high volatility of the markets, next week we'll focus again on short term trades. We'll continue keeping on hold our long term positions.

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Click here for the video version of this report.



Click here to continue to Market Trends or enjoy the following video version:






10-14 November 2008

Market Trends - Equities

The NASDAQ100 index weekly chart is shown here, where you can see the range trading we’ve mentioned earlier. The trend is still definitely bearish. We and the rest of the world, hope it may turn back up, but for now that’s just hope (which we don’t trade with) and we have no signal yet of a long term trend change.






The signals we had (on a daily scale) are reported in this chart, one more view of a bearish market.
























The S&P500 index weekly chart is reported here, showing a very similar behavior. The relative signals are in the following chart.

















Mini-S&P alerts,daily scale.
























No different news  for the Dow Jones.



















This is a performance comparison chart for the three equities indexes we follow, showing them all heading back down after an attempt to change way last month. Equities lost anywhere from 25% to 35% in these last three months, NASDAQ100 being the most extreme as usual, although the three indexes have a very similar shape in their performance.















On a yearly basis, we are now looking at a loss around 40%.
























All sectors share these general trends. The FINANCIAL sector took another dive in the last couple weeks and is now down 55% for the year. CONSUMER STAPLES have the “best” performance (really the less negative) down 19%.  The only two sectors that showed positive returns during the year are ENERGY and MATERIALS, but it is now sad to see how deep and how fast that situation changed!













INTERNATIONAL equities have not done any better and are now down 35% to 55% YTD.



























CRUDE OIL
continues its dramatic fall, as shown in the weekly chart and the signal charts. This is now a long trend – if anybody thinks to take that train (i.e. start new trades), think again: this is dangerous territories and volatility is expected.







































GOLD
also continues on its way down as shown in these charts.













































Finally, BONDS are still looking up, enjoying the lack of confidence the world now has for equities.



See below for comments on other market components.













YTD performance of key markets, including key commodities and bonds. The fall of Crude Oil is particularly shoking in this view.



NASADAQ100 wkly
Fig.1 - NASDAQ100 weekly


Q's alerts
Fig.2 - QQQQ triggers, daily scale




SP500 wkly
Fig.3 - S&P500 - weekly chart


ES signals
Fig.4 - Mini-S&P alerts



Dow Jones wkly
Fig.5 - Dow Jones - weekly chart


equities perf 3 mos
Fig 6 - DJ, NASDAQ100, S&P500 - 3 months comparative performance


equities ytd
Fig 7 - DJ, NASDAQ100, S&P500 - YTD comparative performance



sectors
Fig.8 - Sector comparative performance: YTD


intnl ytd
Fig.9 - Country specific trend comparison: YTD






crude oil

Fig.10 - Crude Oil - weekly chart



crude alerts
Fig. 11 - Crude Oil - daily alerts


Gold weekly
Fig.12 - Gold - weekly chart


gold alerts
Fig. 13 - Gold - daily alerts



bonds wkly
Fig.14 - Bonds- weekly chart



markets ytd
Fig 15 - Major markets - YTD comparative performance

Country-specific ETFs





On the right is a chart showing the relative Year-to-Date performance of five of the country-specific ETF's that we chose to represent current round- the-world status.


countries ytd
Fig.16 - Country specific trend comparison: YTD





Industry Sectors  - Best & Worst

This is the Year-to-Date performance of the ETFs we selected to represent Sector performance.



Legend:
Materials Select Sector, XLB
Energy Select Sector, XLE
Financial Select Sector, XLF
Rydex Russell Top 50, XLG
Industrial Select Sector, XLI
Technology Select Sector, XLK
Consumer Staples Select, XLP
Utilities Select Sector, XLU
Health Care Select Sector, XLV
Consumer Discretionary, XLY

sectors ytd
Fig.17 - Sector comparative performance: YTD




best trading

Bottom line
:
Our plan for 2008 is to continue following our proven approach and strategies to
  • achieve outstanding returns, and
  • manage a skillfully diversified portfolio
We will do that in the comfort of our safe money management techniques that ensure full control of occasional minor losses while allowing full realization of large profits.

As usual, the full details of our market analysis and real-time trade suggestions will be delivered to you via the
OUTPACEsys e-mail alert system.


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