OUTPACEsys


OUTPACEsys
Singular Views for Profitable Investing

 
19-23 May 2008

by Paul DeCaro

Contents
Trends
Sentiment
ETFs performance
Best/Worst Performing Industries
Portfolio & Trades
Bottom Line

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Dear Fellow Investor,

This is the latest of our reports providing status and trends of the major components of the financial markets. We will review the major indexes and key sectors of the market and report on the performance of specific industries and the trends in international markets. These are the data that feed the set of analytical models upon which we base our trading approach and drive our trade selection process.


In the interest of not wasting anybody's time, we keep these notes concise and to the point, while we strive to provide clear indications on the identified trends and very actionable suggestions.


We hope you will enjoy the following reviews of this week's events.
If you have any questions or suggestions, please feel free to e-mail us here!




Portfolio & Trades
-
This week we closed a short position in QQQQ which quickly benefited from this week's retracement.

Underlying Equity Symbol Description % Profit/Loss Time in trade
QQQQ
QQQ RY
JUN08 51.0 Put +41% 7 days




MAY 19-23, 2008

Market Trends
- Equities

This week all major stock equity indices took a significant beating - from 3.5 to 4% down.

Let us look at a longer timeframe first, then we'll focus back on the immediate situation and look at our indicators

On a longer time frame: In the last three months, the NASDAQ has shown a strong uptrend, gaining about twice as much
as the S&P and DJ did. This helped the ND recover from the relatively more severe drop occurred in the first quarter of this year and finish now practically on par with the other indexes.

The charts at the right show the
price history, in terms of relative performance, of the S&P500, the Dow Jones, and the Nasdaq 100 indexes.

Our indicators show that this week's behaviour gave pause to the uptrend that started in late March. and brings us back to testing some major support levels.

We discussed in previous weeks how the long term trend is caught in a range and still very vulnerable to a downtrend. So it will be very interesting to follow the market behaviour in the next several days to see what eventually transpires.

Capital for long term opportunities remains in cash.

Due to this unsettled (and quite unsettling) situation, a conservative portfolio should avoid short-term trades.





Individual weekly charts for the S&P, DJ and NASDAQ are on the right.



See below for comments on other market components.
dj



dj 3mo


sp
S&P500 - weekly chart


dj
DowJones Industrial - weekly chart


nd
NASDAQ 100 - weekly chart


Market Trends
- Commodities

As the US Stocks sputter along trying to recover from the new lows and both Government and corporate bonds continue treading in a range, both Gold and Crude Oil keep enjoying great growth.

Crude oil in particular is leaving no prisoners and keeps climbing, ending up this week with a 15% growth so far in the month of May.

Oil has grown 40% YTD, and Gold touched 10% while the S&P has lost about 5% so far this year.
mkt 1


mky 1y

ETF Performance

On the right is a chart showing the relative Year-to-Date performance of five of the country-specific ETF's that we chose to represent current round- the-world status.

Japan, Taiwan and Australia show the best performance, as compared to the un-remarkable (and 5% negative) performance of the S&P 500.
ctry





Industries  - Best & Worst

This is the Year-to-Date performance of the ETFs we selected to represent Sector performance.


Legend:
Materials Select Sector, XLB
Energy Select Sector, XLE
Financial Select Sector, XLF
Rydex Russell Top 50, XLG
Industrial Select Sector, XLI
Technology Select Sector, XLK
Consumer Staples Select, XLP
Utilities Select Sector, XLU
Health Care Select Sector, XLV
Consumer Discretionary, XLY

sctr

Portfolio & Trades - This week we closed a short position in QQQQ which quickly benefited from this week retracement.

Underlying Equity Symbol Description % Profit/Loss Time in trade
QQQQ
QQQ RY
JUN08 51.0 Put +41% 7 days




best trading



Bottom line
:
Our plan for 2008 is to continue following our proven approach and strategies to
  • achieve outstanding returns, and
  • manage a skillfully diversified portfolio
We will do that in the comfort of our safe money management techniques that ensure full control of occasional minor losses while allowing full realization of large profits.

As usual, the full details of our market analysis and real-time trade suggestions will be delivered to you via the
OUTPACEsys e-mail alert system.


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and limit risk?

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get high accuracy trade alerts at
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***

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