OUTPACEsys
Singular Views for Profitable Investing

 
27 - 31 October 2008

Contents

Portfolio & Trades
Trends in Equities
Alternate Markets - Bonds - Commodities
Country-specific ETFs
Industry Sectors
Bottom Line

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PORTFOLIO AND TRADES

Let us start this report summarizing the trades we performed this week. It's going to be very interesting, since we are going to show how to smartly invest a relatively small capital (say $2,000) and obtain a profit of more than 100% in a single week.

 In a previous report we showed the incredible results we had this past Tuesday, when the markets sparked up and we were able to catch very nice profits of over 50% in that one day.

But the rest of the week has also been very good. On Wednesday, we had two trades where we went long once again using options on the Q's, the popular NASDAQ100 ETF.

Thursday we started the day with a short position which we held for a very short time, followed by a long position in the afternoon. Prices were in a range all day, which made the day fairly un-exciting.

On Friday, we had one position going long, which we held almost all day long.

The results are summarized in this table. We indicated here the individual trades, with opening and closing times, the price per contract at open and close of each trade.


trade summary

In this table we also show how a relatively small investment capital can produce great results. We show here how a $2,000 amount could have been managed. So the table shows what you could do with a $2,000 amount utilized each trade. We are not compounding or re-investing, we simply buy the number of contracts allowed by the opening option price. In this first trade, each contract cost $355, so our $2,000 capital bought us 5 contracts. In the second trade, each contract was only $44 so we could trade 45 contracts, which produced a lovely profit of $540 on that single trade!

The initial prices of the contracts we looked at this week ranged from of $44 to $375, which allowed trading anywhere from 5 to 45 contracts per trade.

The bottom line is a fantastic profit of more than $2,800 for the week obtained over a total of ten trades. The initial $2,000 grew to $4,800. This is a profit of 140% over the initial margin. We're definitely happy!


LOOK AHEAD - Given the high volatility of the markets, next week we'll focus again on short term trades. We'll continue keeping on hold our long term positions.

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Click here for the video version of this report.



Click here to continue to Market Trends or enjoy the following video version:






27-31 October 2008

Market Trends - Equities

The NASDAQ has recovered a portion of the tremendous loss it endured this year but is still deeply in the red. We expect a bit of a bounce back but it will probably be quite erratic and volatile in the days to come.












The trading triggers we looked at on the daily scale are shown here. We've been continuously bearish from the beginning of September.





















The S&P500 is obviously in a very similar situation and our comments here are the same.

















Mini-S&P alerts
























CRUDE OIL
on the other hand has had an incredible volatility so far this year and we've been bearish on oil from early July. Here too, however, we expect a bit of a countertrend coming. More details in a moment.







































GOLD
also has had a very bouncy behaviour. We are definitely still bearish on Gold too.











































The Dow Jones
and the BONDS market have patterns similar to the other equities indexes, although bonds traded in their own individual range. We'll expand a bit on this in a moment.















See below for comments on other market components.
















Let's see how they all compare in these performance comparison charts. ND, DJ and the SP have been down as much as 25% this month alone but have now recovered a good 10% of the total loss.

















On a YTD view, they are now down about 30% for the year.
























When we compare the key markets, including key commodities and bonds, we have an extremely interesting situation. This year Oil has created lots of trouble the world over, rising more than a stunning 50% only to drop back to a 30% loss now. (Unfortunately, gas at the pump is surely not cheaper than it was a year ago...)

Gold also, from a high of +20% early this year is now down a good 15%.

Equities as we saw earlier are down about 30%.

Ironically, the performance star so far this year are bonds, which are now enjoying a winning 0% change for the year. How exciting! This is food for thought for those who blindly follow the buy-and-hold philosophy!



ND100 wkly
Fig.1 - NASDAQ100 weekly


NQ daily
Fig.2 - NASDAQ100 and S&P500: YTD comparative performance




SP500 wkly
Fig.3 - S&P500 - weekly chart


ES daily
Fig.4 - Mini-S&P alerts


Oi; wkly
Fig.6 - Crude Oil - weekly chart



Oil daily
Fig. 7 - Oil - daily alerts


Gold wkly
Fig.8 - Gold - weekly chart


Gold daily
Fig. 9 - Gold - daily alerts


DJ wkly
Fig.10 - Gold - weekly chart

Bonds wkly
Fig.11 - Bonds- weekly chart


DJ NQ SP 1 month
Fig 12 - DJ, NASDAQ100, S&P500 - 1 month comparative performance


YTD comparison
Fig 13 - DJ, NASDAQ100, S&P500 - YTD comparative performance





markets YTD
Fig 14 - Major markets - YTD comparative performance

Country-specific ETFs





On the right is a chart showing the relative Year-to-Date performance of five of the country-specific ETF's that we chose to represent current round- the-world status.


countries YTD
Fig.15 - Country specific trend comparison: YTD





Industry Sectors  - Best & Worst

This is the Year-to-Date performance of the ETFs we selected to represent Sector performance.



Legend:
Materials Select Sector, XLB
Energy Select Sector, XLE
Financial Select Sector, XLF
Rydex Russell Top 50, XLG
Industrial Select Sector, XLI
Technology Select Sector, XLK
Consumer Staples Select, XLP
Utilities Select Sector, XLU
Health Care Select Sector, XLV
Consumer Discretionary, XLY

Sectors YTD
Fig.16 - Sector comparative performance: YTD




best trading

Bottom line
:
Our plan for 2008 is to continue following our proven approach and strategies to
  • achieve outstanding returns, and
  • manage a skillfully diversified portfolio
We will do that in the comfort of our safe money management techniques that ensure full control of occasional minor losses while allowing full realization of large profits.

As usual, the full details of our market analysis and real-time trade suggestions will be delivered to you via the
OUTPACEsys e-mail alert system.


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